Blitz Bureau
NEW DELHI: India’s white-collar slowdown is no longer a matter of perception; it is clearly visible in corporate disclosures and hiring data. In 2023–24, market leaders such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro reported flat or sharply reduced net employee additions even as revenues stabilised, breaking a two-decade link between growth and hiring in IT services.
TCS, the country’s largest private-sector employer, added only marginal headcount, while Infosys and Wipro recorded periods of net attrition. Compensation surveys show mid-level salary increments moderating to 6-8 per cent, down from double-digit norms of the 2010s. These signals point not to a cyclical pause, but to a structural reset in India’s white-collar labour market.
Addressing the slowdown demands coordinated reform — continuous skilling incentives, industry-linked certification, portable social security for contract professionals and credible labour-market data
The change is best explained by the Barbell Effect — a labour market that expands at the extremes while hollowing out the middle. At one end are elite, high-skill roles. Demand for AI architects, data engineers, cybersecurity specialists and niche consultants remains robust.
Industry estimates suggest salaries for experienced AI and machine-learning professionals in India rose 20-30 per cent between 2022 and 2024, even as overall IT hiring slowed. Firms are willing to pay aggressively for skills that directly influence productivity, automation and strategic decision-making.
At the other end are low-skill and service jobs — delivery, logistics, warehousing, retail support and platform-based work. These roles continue to expand as urbanisation and consumption rise, even though wages remain modest and employment informal. Together, the two ends of the labour market are growing, but they offer sharply unequal income security and mobility.
The pressure point lies in the white-collar middle. Analysts, accountants, compliance officers, testers, documentation staff and mid-level managers — once the backbone of corporate India — are increasingly exposed. Global estimates suggest up to 30 per cent of hours worked could be automated by 2030, with routine cognitive tasks most vulnerable.
In India, automation and generative AI tools are already reducing the need for large teams handling reporting, testing and basic analysis. Revenue growth is no longer translating into proportional job creation.
Three forces are driving this shift. First, technology adoption has moved decisively from experimentation to substitution. Second, corporate cost discipline has become structural, with flatter hierarchies and fewer layers of supervision. Third, remote work has globalised white-collar competition, compressing wages for roles that are location-agnostic.
The implications extend beyond careers. A hollowing-out white-collar middle weakens consumption growth, widens inequality and sharpens anxiety among India’s urban, educated workforce. For businesses, legacy job structures are becoming liabilities. For professionals, the era of the “safe corporate career” is rapidly ending.
Policy has been slow and fragmented. India’s skilling framework remains focused on entry-level employability, neglecting mid-career reskilling at scale. Higher education stays misaligned with workplace needs, while labour statistics understate white-collar stress.
Addressing the slowdown demands coordinated reform — continuous skilling incentives, industry-linked certification, portable social security for contract professionals and credible labour-market data.
Without decisive action, the barbell economy will harden, middle-class expectations will fracture, and India risks converting its demographic promise into a prolonged white-collar reckoning.
Ignoring this shift will only deepen labour-market distortions and delay urgently needed institutional, educational and regulatory corrections.