MJ Akbar
NEW DELHI: Epic wars are continual rather than continuous. They traverse generations, and end when there is either complete exhaustion of resources or breakdown of human spirit. The war between America and Iran is only 55 years old. Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei was in the forefront of battle when it started, just after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 overthrew America’s principal ally in the Muslim world, the former grandiloquent Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
The current conflict has unique features. Iran and America are both ruled by Supreme Leaders, although only one is so designated. The Ayatollahs claim this distinction in the name of doctrine; President Donald Trump exercises such rights as a man of destiny. He uses ‘I’ rather than ‘we’ in ownership of any decision, just in case you doubted his supremacy. Institutional checks inbuilt into decision-making exist in both systems but cannot prevail against the wish of the Supreme Leader. Seasoned Generals understand that there must be logic in operational command, or orders become counterproductive. But the basic impulses of all-powerful leaders, impelled by dread of defeat or glorious visions of victory, are not necessarily rational. It can get personal.
Indisputable facts
No one knew when Trump’s Operation Epic Fury would begin. No one knows how long Iran’s Operation True Promise will sustain. It is easy to predict havoc in no-cost commentary; but to find out whether change will rise from the debris you may have to check with God. Hamas has not been eliminated from Gaza after two years of unremitting death and rubble. But nothing is a precedent in the volatility and mayhem that has consumed West Asia after the pre-emptive strike by America and Israel at 9AM Tehran time on Saturday, February 28.
Some facts are indisputable. America possesses the most devastating arsenal assembled in human history. Resources tend to prevail, although history is replete with exceptions. Israel has the finest contemporary air force and high-quality defence infrastructure. They make powerful allies.
Within the first 48 hours Iran established that it was not Venezuela, the preferred Trump model for regime change. Venezuela was run by fake socialists; Iran is not run by fake Shias
Iran has mastered the sling technology of David against the heavy armour of Goliath. This sling is an inexpensive kamikaze Shahed drone, costing between $20,000 and $50,000, dubbed the AK-47 of the skies. Every American interceptor against the drone has a price tag of $1 million, largely because the Western private defence sector is as committed to its share price as the national interest. Iran’s expertise has been acknowledged, not least by the Pentagon which admitted that it borrowed Shahed technology for its own drones. Tehran has said that it is ready for a long war, confident that its fighting units have the necessary reserves of sacrifice and spirit to do so.
Recalibrating objectives
Within the first 48 hours Iran established that it was not Venezuela, the preferred Trump model for regime change. Venezuela was run by fake socialists; Iran is not run by fake Shias. The Shia are inspired by long memory. Each year during the first ten days of Muharram, they mourn the outcome of the Battle of Karbala in 680 CE between their Imam, the venerated grandson of the Prophet, Husayn ibn Ali, and Yazid, heir of the Sunni Umayyad Empire which ruled from Damascus.
Within those 48 hours, Washington recalibrated its declared war objectives more than once. There was an air of triumph in the White House on Saturday morning after a swarm of over 100 aircraft, backed by Tomahawk missiles from the sea, targeted Beit-e-Rahbari (House of Leadership), the residence and office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei, killing him, his wife, and close advisers.
Confident that he could wrap up Tehran as easily as Caracas, Trump told Iranian forces to lay down arms in return for some unspecified sort of amnesty. The punishment for non-compliance was unprecedented devastation. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added a codicil, an echo of Trump’s exhortation: the moment had come for the Iranian people to rise and replace the Islamic regime. Job done.
IRGC underestimated
If the death of Khamenei was sufficient, the war would have been over in a few hours. But the Iranian street did not stir. Instead, the assassination of the Ayatollah galvanised the regime’s support base. Ironically, in the immediate term, it may have strengthened a regime that was under pressure from age, economic malfunction, and excessive social zeal.
It was soon clear that America and Israel had underestimated Iran’s military capability and the commitment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the strike arm of its forces. By Saturday afternoon Iran had set off the firestorm it had long promised as reprisal. The conflagration blazed across American bases and missions in the Gulf, lit up Arab assets like refineries, and hit Israeli cities. The comparative accuracy of the drone strikes was a surprise to America and Israel.