Two numbers frame India’s trade day. First, $232.73 billion — the country’s overall exports of goods and services in the April–June quarter, up 11.37% year-on-year and the highest first-quarter figure on record. Second, 99% — the share of Indian tariff lines that, from today, enter Britain duty-free as the India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement takes effect. Momentum and market access have arrived in the same week.
The composition is as encouraging as the headline. Merchandise exports rose 15.92% in the quarter to $129.32 billion, with June shipments at $40.41 billion (up 15.5%). Diversification is the standout: exports to ASEAN surged 66.9% and to Africa 53.1%, while the United States remained the single largest destination. The counter-weight is a wider deficit — June’s merchandise trade gap widened to $30.43 billion as imports climbed on costlier crude — a reminder that the external account still turns on the oil price.
A record quarter tells you the export engine is running; a live trade pact tells you the track just got longer. The deficit tells you the fuel bill still matters.
To make CETA usable on day one, the CBIC has issued the self-certification-of-origin framework so exporters can claim preferential tariffs without paperwork delays, while a Double Contribution Convention spares Indian professionals in the UK dual social-security dues for up to five years. It is one deal in a sequence: US negotiators are reported “very, very close” on an interim pact ahead of the July 24 tariff step, and a concluded India–EU agreement is moving toward signature.
The constructive read for corporates is that access converts to revenue only when firms operationalise it. The way forward runs through faster origin certification, mutual recognition of standards and trade finance that reaches MSMEs — so the record at the top of the table is matched by gains for mid-sized exporters, not only the largest houses. Today the tariff falls; the order book is the work of the quarters ahead.