Areport titled “How India Shops Online 2025” by Bain India shows that India has become a retail powerhouse over the last decade, ascending to the third largest retail market globally in 2024. The Indian e-retail market has surged to approximately $60 billion in gross merchandise value ( G M V ) , boasting the world’s second-largest online shopper base. India’s consumption and discretionary spending have faced headwinds in recent years, with private consumption growth slowing from 11 per cent pre-Covid (2017–19) to ~8 per cent postC o v i d (2022– 2 4 ) .
T h i s d e – cline is driven by higher inflation and a stagnation of real wages. The stress in consumption is evident in e-retail growth in 2024 being 10 per cent–12 per cent, compared to historical growth rates of over 20 per cent.
However, the recent fiscal and monetary policy interventions are expected to drive a rebound in e-retail growth, especially from the festive period of 2025, on account of revival in the consumption cycle. Long-term market fundamentals remain robust, with e-retail projected to exceed 18 per cent growth over the next six years, reaching an estimated $170–$190 billion in GMV, with nearly 1 in 10 retail dollars spent on e-retail by 2030.
This growth will be fuelled by increased discretionary spending as India’s per capita GDP surpasses $3,500–$4,000 — a crucial tipping point unlocking discretionary and e-retail spending globally. States in In- dia with per capita GDP above $3,500 already exhibit 1.2 times higher e- retail penetration than other regions.
High-frequency categories such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise will drive e-retail growth, accounting for two out of every three dollars spent on eretail by 2030. These categories are set to see a two-to fourfold increase in e-retail penetration over this period.
