While gold is expected to get costlier in times of geopolitical conflicts, investors have been surprised to see a decline in yellow metal prices amid the ongoing US-Israel versus Iran war.
According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the price of 10-gram 24-carat gold has fallen 10.37 per cent in seven days, from Rs 1,55,714 on March 16 to Rs 1,39,569 on March 23.
Silver prices have also declined by 11.24 per cent in seven days, from Rs 2,48,711 per kg on March 16 to Rs 2,19,260 on March 23.
As the gold and silver prices continue to drop, investors are concerned about whether this trend will hold for long or reverse going forward. However, a recent report by SBI Research hints at brighter days ahead for the precious metals after the end of the war.
| Date | Gold* (₹) | Silver* (₹) |
|---|---|---|
| March 23, 2026 | 1,39,569 | 2,19,260 |
| March 20, 2026 | 1,47,218 | 2,32,364 |
| March 19, 2026 | 1,47,889 | 2,29,873 |
| March 18, 2026 | 1,54,879 | 2,49,907 |
| March 17, 2026 | 1,55,668 | 2,52,340 |
| March 16, 2026 | 1,55,714 | 2,48,711 |
*Note: Rates are exclusive of GST as of March 23, 2026. Gold prices are per 10 gm and silver prices are per kg.
Source: IBJA
The report expects a “smart recovery” in gold and silver prices soon once the dust settles.
Why are the prices falling?
Gold and silver prices have exhibited waning strength since the start of the conflict due to heavy sell-off by investors.
Generally, a stronger dollar (USD) diminishes the appeal of commodities, including gold and silver. During the ongoing conflict, USD has crawled to a record high, resulting in a fall in prices of gold and silver.
“Most often, metals including precious metals, are juxtaposed to the Greenback, a weaker dollar fuels a rally (over and above demand driven dynamics) while a stronger USD diminishes the appeal of the commodities that are largely priced in the dominant currency,” the report said.
“Given the structural imbalances globally, paving the way of the dollar crawling to an uncontested peak, metals pack have taken a beating with prices of gold and silver hamstrung most by the sudden assault emanating from the conflict and the clouds on industrial demand,” it added.
Why the report expects a recovery?
According to the report, countries will need to infuse liquidity to revive the demand impetus after the end of the conflict. Moreover, central banks could also start accumulating precious metals again, which could lead to another bull run. Both these activities could lead to another bull run in gold and silver.
“Interestingly, nations may need to infuse liquidity to revive the demand impetus, crawling out of the precarious situation once the conflict abates, a perfect bazooka for the role reversal with precious metals offer a citadel from imperfect multi-polarity of the world,” the report said.
“While recent actions of central banks are not available in public domain, we believe most could return to the table, accumulating more of precious metals in their coffers, anchoring another leg of a bull run that goes concurrently with apprehensions cast on sustainability of elevated debt plans of both sovereigns, as also hyper scalers in next two-three years,” it added.