Blitz India Business
7.8% first-quarter GDP growth keeps India the fastest-growing major economy — even as the RBI sets a deliberately cautious full-year forecast of 6.6%.
The gap between the two numbers is the story: strong current momentum from services, industry and construction, tempered by a central bank keeping expectations grounded against oil-price and geopolitical risk. Budget capital expenditure of ₹12.22 lakh crore (+11.5%) is doing the heavy lifting on the investment side.
Well-anchored inflation near 3.4% gives the RBI room to stay supportive — a rare growth-and-stability combination in a jittery global year.
By the Numbers
- Q1 2026 GDP: 7.8% (beat estimates)
- RBI FY forecast: 6.6%
- CPI inflation: ~3.4%
- Capex (FY27): ₹12.22 lakh crore (+11.5%)
- Digital economy: nearing $1 trillion
For business, the mix matters: contained inflation supports consumption, while the capex push signals durable demand for cement, steel, capital goods and construction. The World Bank continues to project strong expansion.
The constructive priority is broadening the recovery into private capex and jobs — the next leg that converts public investment into a self-sustaining cycle.