Blitz India Business
7.7% full-year FY2025–26 growth — beating the government’s own estimate and up from 7.1% a year earlier — keeps India the fastest-growing major economy, even as the RBI pencils a deliberately cautious 6.6% for the year ahead.
The distance between the two numbers is the message: strong current momentum from services, industry and construction, tempered by a central bank keeping expectations grounded against oil-price and geopolitical risk. The most recent quarter printed 7.8%, against a 7.3% consensus.
Well-anchored inflation gives the RBI room to stay supportive — a rare growth-and-stability combination in a jittery global year.
By the Numbers
- FY2025–26 full year: 7.7% (revised upward from 7.1%)
- Latest quarter: 7.8% (outperforming the 7.3% market consensus)
- RBI year-ahead forecast: 6.6%
- Mfg PMI (Jun): 54.5 — hits a three-month low, but remains well within firm expansion territory
For business, the mix matters: contained inflation — helped by lower crude and easing commodity costs — supports consumption, while the digital-payments surge signals durable formalisation. June’s manufacturing PMI eased to a three-month low but stayed firmly in expansion territory, a moderation rather than a stall.
The constructive priority is broadening the recovery into private capex and jobs — the next leg that converts public investment and digital scale into a self-sustaining cycle.